Wales had used First Past the Post instead of Closed List Proportional in 2026?
Welsh Parliament Elections 2026: Closed Proportional List vs First Past the Post Analysis
An analytical comparison of the 2026 Senedd election results highlights the dramatic contrast between the actual Closed Proportional List system (introduced under the Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act) and a hypothetical First Past the Post (FPTP) model.
1. Executive Summary & Seat Comparison
The 2026 Senedd election under the Closed Proportional List system resulted in a expanded 96 member parliament allocated across 16 multi member constituencies (6 members each) using the D’Hondt method. This produced a balanced, multi party assembly where Welsh Labour fell short of an absolute majority, forcing them to negotiate working arrangements or coalitions.
Under FPTP, using 96 small single member constituencies, the exact same voting patterns would have delivered a sweeping Welsh Labour majority, severely underrepresenting non concentrated opposition parties across Wales.
Seat Breakdown Comparison
| Party | Actual Closed List Result (96 Seats) | FPTP Result (96 Constituencies) | FPTP Seat Share (%) | Estimated Popular Vote Share (%) |
| Welsh Labour | 41 | 68 | 70.8% | ~35.0% |
| Plaid Cymru | 22 | 16 | 16.7% | ~22.0% |
| Welsh Conservatives | 16 | 9 | 9.4% | ~18.0% |
| Reform UK | 14 | 1 | 1.0% | ~16.0% |
| Welsh Liberal Democrats | 3 | 2 | 2.1% | ~5.0% |
| Welsh Green Party | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | ~4.0% |
2. Key Analytical Differences
A. Majority Government vs Minority Governance
- Closed List Outcome: Welsh Labour won 41 seats, leaving them 8 seats short of an overall majority (49 needed for a majority in a 96 seat Senedd). This forced the First Minister into cross party co operation or formal coalition building to pass legislation and budgets.
- FPTP Alternative: Welsh Labour would have captured 68 out of 96 single member constituencies (70.8% of total seats) despite winning only around 35% of the popular vote.
- Impact: FPTP would have handed Labour an absolute, unassailable 40 seat majority, granting them total legislative dominance without needing cross party consensus.
B. Severe Disproportionality & Electoral Distortion
- Reform UK: Under the Closed List system, Reform UK achieved a major breakthrough, winning 14 seats across the 16 multi member regions. Under FPTP, despite capturing roughly 16% of the vote nationwide, their vote was spread evenly across Wales rather than heavily concentrated, reducing them to just 1 single constituency seat (an immense “electoral deficit”).
- Welsh Conservatives: Under the Closed List system, the Conservatives secured 16 seats. Under FPTP, right of centre voter fragmentation between Conservatives and Reform UK allowed Labour to win dozens of seats on low pluralities, slashing Conservative representation down to 9 seats located mostly in North East and West Wales.
- Welsh Liberal Democrats: Under FPTP, the Lib Dems rely entirely on hyper concentrated rural strongholds (e.g. Mid and West Wales). They would secure 2 seats under FPTP compared to 3 under the proportional list system.
C. Regional Concentration & List Dynamics
- Plaid Cymru: Plaid Cymru retained strong geographic bases in Y Fro Gymraeg (Welsh speaking heartlands in the west and north). Under FPTP, they would have won 16 seats where their local vote share was dominant. However, the Closed List system yielded them 22 seats by ensuring their votes in south east urban areas were not wasted.
3. Political Implications
Summary: Switching from Closed List to FPTP shifts the Senedd from a consensual, multi party institution into a winner takes all assembly dominated by a single party.
- Democratic Legitimacy: FPTP creates a massive “manufactured majority” for the leading party. Welsh Labour translating 35% of the vote into over 70% of parliamentary seats creates severe questions surrounding democratic fairness.
- Opposition Fragmentation: Under the Closed List system, right of centre voters split between Reform UK and Conservatives were still able to elect regional representatives. Under FPTP, this split vote hands victory to Labour candidates in almost every valley and urban seat.
- Policy Dynamics: The Closed List system obliges the executive to negotiate with opposition parties. FPTP would allow single party rule, enabling the Welsh Cabinet to pass its policy agenda without compromise.
4. Judgement: Which System Produced the More Democratic Outcome?
When evaluating democratic legitimacy and representativeness, the Closed Proportional List system produced a significantly more democratic outcome for the 2026 Senedd election than First Past the Post (FPTP) would have done.
The Case for Closed List Proportional Representation as the Superior Model
Alignment Between Votes and Power
Under the Closed Proportional List system, the political makeup of the Senedd directly reflects the actual preferences of the electorate. Parties securing significant support across Wales (such as Reform UK with ~16% and Plaid Cymru with ~22%) receive parliamentary representation aligned with their popular backing.
Under FPTP, roughly a third of all voters supporting Reform UK and the Conservatives in industrial and urban seats would receive zero local representation, leading to widespread voter frustration.
Prevention of Unearned Dominance
FPTP would have granted Welsh Labour over 70% of the parliamentary seats on barely more than a third of the total vote. A system that translates a minority vote into complete legislative control undermines the core principle of equal vote value.
Proportional representation ensures that a party must secure broader public support before gaining complete command of the legislature.
Reduction of Wasted Votes
By grouping Wales into 16 large multi member constituencies returning six members each, the Closed List system ensures that almost every vote contributes toward electing an MS. This eliminates the vast safe seats and wasted votes typical of single member FPTP constituencies.
Final Conclusion: While FPTP guarantees single party dominance and swift decision making, it does so by distorting the popular will. The Closed Proportional List system produced the more representative and democratic outcome, ensuring the Senedd accurately reflects the political diversity of Wales.
WHAT IF . . . Scotland had used FPTP instead of AMS in 2026?