How This Guide Maps to Your Specification
Referendums appear on both major A-Level Politics specifications as a named topic within the study of democracy and elections. This guide is organised so that every section below can be located directly against the relevant specification reference.
AQA (7152): Government and Politics of the UK
- 3.1.2.1 Democracy and participation. This code covers two strands: the development of the franchise (the Great Reform Act 1832, the Chartists, Suffragists and Suffragettes) and the nature of democracy, including the differences between direct and representative democracy. Only the second strand falls within this guide’s scope and is covered in Section 1; the franchise-extension strand is a separate topic and is not addressed here.
- 3.1.2.2 Elections and referendums. States explicitly that ‘students should analyse and evaluate the nature and use of referendums in the UK and their impact.’ Covered in Sections 2, 3, 4 and 6.
- Synoptic links. AQA identifies referendums as a synoptic bridge to devolution (3.1.1.5), the judiciary (3.1.1.4, via the Miller and IndyRef2 cases in Section 7), political parties (3.1.2.3) and the EU (3.1.2.5), all touched on in this guide.
Pearson Edexcel (9PL0): Component 1, UK Politics and Core Political Ideas
- Content area 3, Electoral systems, sub-point 3.2, Referendums and how they are used. The specification wording is: ‘How referendums have been used in the UK and their impact on UK political life since 1997. The case for and against referendums in a representative democracy.’ This is covered directly in Sections 2, 4 and 6, which follow the same ‘since 1997’ framing.
- Content area 1, Democracy and participation, sub-point 1.1. Direct democracy and representative democracy, including their advantages, disadvantages and the case for reform, are covered in Section 1.
Note: specification references are correct for the syllabuses current at the time of writing. Always check the live specification on aqa.org.uk or qualifications.pearson.com for your own examination series, since exam boards periodically update wording and content.
1. What Is a Referendum?
Referendum: a direct vote in which the electorate is asked to give a Yes/No answer on a single question, rather than electing a representative to decide on their behalf. Referendums are a form of direct democracy, set against the UK’s usual system of representative democracy.
- Advisory, not legally binding. Because of parliamentary sovereignty, a UK referendum result does not bind Parliament in law; an Act of Parliament is still required to give it effect. In practice, however, every result has been acted upon politically.
- Pre-legislative versus post-legislative. A pre-legislative referendum is held before the detailed law is drafted, so voters do not know precisely what they are choosing (the 2016 EU referendum, where ‘Leave’ was undefined). A post-legislative referendum is held after Parliament has already passed the relevant law, so the vote simply ratifies or rejects it (the 2011 AV referendum, where the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011 had already specified what adopting AV would mean).
- The franchise varies. Unlike general elections, there is no fixed, permanent referendum franchise; the government of the day decides who may vote each time. Sixteen- and seventeen-year-olds and EU nationals resident in Scotland could vote in the 2014 independence referendum but not in the 2016 EU referendum.
- Reserved matters. Only the UK Parliament can authorise a referendum on a reserved matter such as the future of the Union. A devolved parliament cannot hold one on its own authority, as the Supreme Court confirmed in 2022 in respect of a proposed second Scottish independence referendum.
2. Referendums Since 1997: The Chronology
Before 1997, referendums played almost no part in UK politics: one UK-wide vote, in 1975, and two failed devolution referendums in 1979. Tony Blair’s government elected in 1997 began a sustained programme of constitutional reform, and referendums became a recurring device thereafter, used to authorise devolution, decide the electoral system, and settle the country’s constitutional future within the Union and the EU.
| Date | Referendum | Result | Turnout |
| 11 Sept 1997 | Scotland: Parliament and tax-varying powers | Yes 74.3% / Yes 63.5% | 60.4% |
| 18 Sept 1997 | Wales: National Assembly | Yes 50.3% | 50.1% |
| 7 May 1998 | London: Mayor and Greater London Authority | Yes 72.0% | 34.1% |
| 22 May 1998 | Northern Ireland: Good Friday Agreement | Yes 71.1% | 81.1% |
| 4 Nov 2004 | Northeast England: elected regional assembly | No 77.9% | 47.7% |
| 3 Mar 2011 | Wales: full primary law-making powers | Yes 63.5% | 35.4% |
| 5 May 2011 | UK-wide: Alternative Vote for Westminster | No 67.9% | 42.2% |
| 18 Sep 2014 | Scotland: independence from the UK | No 55.3% | 84.6% |
| 23 June 2016 | UK-wide: membership of the European Union | Leave 51.9% | 72.2% |
The Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000 (PPERA) created the statutory framework that has applied since: spending limits for campaigners, a single designated lead campaign on each side, and oversight by the newly created Electoral Commission. The Localism Act 2011 separately introduced local referendums for elected mayors and for council tax increases above a set threshold.
3. Case Study: The 2016 EU Referendum
Why Cameron called it
David Cameron’s Bloomberg speech of January 2013 promised a referendum by the end of 2017 if the Conservatives won a majority, a pledge repeated in the 2015 manifesto and delivered through the European Union Referendum Act 2015. The commitment served several purposes at once:
- Managing party divisions: deep and long-standing splits within the Conservative Party over Europe.
- Neutralising UKIP: countering the electoral threat from UKIP, which had topped the poll at the 2014 European elections.
- Fulfilling a manifesto pledge: delivering the commitment made in the 2015 general election manifesto.
- Settling the question for a generation: in Cameron’s calculation, a referendum would settle the European question decisively, while a majority backed continued membership of a renegotiated EU.
The campaign
The Electoral Commission designated Vote Leave (chaired by Gisela Stuart, strategy led by Dominic Cummings and Matthew Elliott) and Britain Stronger in Europe (chaired by Stuart Rose) as the official lead campaigns. Nigel Farage campaigned separately through Leave.EU, giving Leave two distinct strands. Boris Johnson and Michael Gove’s decisions to back Leave in February 2016 were widely seen as decisive for that campaign’s credibility.
- Leave: sovereignty (‘Take Back Control’), ending free movement, the disputed claim of £350 million a week for the NHS, and the prospect of independent trade deals.
- Remain: Treasury and Bank of England warnings of recession (‘Project Fear’), the value of unrestricted access to the UK’s largest trading partner, and the risks and likely length of negotiating new arrangements from outside.
Result and aftermath
Leave won by 51.9% to 48.1% on a turnout of 72.2%, a margin of 1,269,501 votes.
- The national breakdown: England and Wales voted Leave; Scotland, Northern Ireland and London voted Remain.
- The demographic pattern: Leave support correlated strongly with older age, lower educational attainment and smaller towns; Remain support with younger voters, graduates and large cities.
- Immediate political fallout: Cameron resigned the following day. The Miller case (2017) established that Article 50 required parliamentary authorisation, and the UK left the EU on 31 January 2020 after three changes of prime minister (Cameron, May, Johnson) and prolonged parliamentary conflict over the Withdrawal Agreement between 2017 and 2019.
- Long-term effects: a Leave/Remain political realignment cutting across the traditional left-right divide (the collapse of the ‘Red Wall’), renewed pressure for a further Scottish independence referendum (rejected by the Supreme Court in November 2022), and continuing difficulty over the Northern Ireland border, addressed through the Northern Ireland Protocol (2019) and the Windsor Framework (2023).
4. Arguments For and Against Referendums
For
- Enhance democracy: a direct say on issues cutting across party lines, such as Brexit, which divided both Labour and the Conservatives internally.
- Provide legitimacy: a whole-electorate mandate entrenches major change, as with the 1998 Good Friday Agreement referendum underpinning the Northern Ireland peace settlement.
- Increase participation: campaigns can raise engagement, as in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum’s 84.6% turnout, the highest since 1950.
- Check government power: they prevent a government imposing irreversible constitutional change without consent, as with the 1997 devolution votes.
Against
- Voters may lack information: complex questions are reduced to Yes/No, and critics argue the 2016 vote oversimplified trade and legal detail, with ‘Leave’ undefined.
- Turnout can undermine legitimacy: only 42.2% voted in the 2011 AV referendum.
- The rules can decide the outcome: in 1979, Scotland voted 52% Yes but failed an imposed 40 per cent-of-electorate threshold.
- The franchise varies: 16- and 17-year-olds and resident EU nationals could vote in 2014 but not in 2016.
- They can entrench division: the close 2016 result (52 to 48) is widely seen as having deepened Leave/Remain divides for years.
- Campaigns can mislead: both 2016 campaigns were criticised, most notably the Vote Leave bus’s £350 million claim.
- They undermine representative democracy: Cameron’s decision to call the 2016 vote is widely read as party management and an electoral response to UKIP as much as constitutional principle.
Exam tip: use at least one specific case study to support each point made, and reach a clear, justified judgement rather than simply listing advantages and disadvantages.
5. International Comparisons
- Switzerland: the most extensive system of direct democracy. Constitutional change requires a mandatory referendum with a double majority of voters and cantons; 50,000 signatures can force an optional referendum on a law already passed; 100,000 signatures can force a popular initiative on a constitutional amendment, even against the government’s wishes.
- Ireland: any amendment to the constitution legally requires a referendum, unlike the UK where this is only political convention. This has made referendums routine on moral and social questions, for example same-sex marriage (2015) and the repeal of the abortion ban (2018), though a 2024 referendum on the definition of family was rejected, showing voters need not follow the government’s recommendation.
- United States: no national referendum provision; direct democracy operates at state level, where roughly half of states allow citizen initiatives or referendums (California since 1911). Initiatives can also threaten minority rights, as with California’s Proposition 8 (2008) banning same-sex marriage before its judicial reversal.
Overall: the UK model is comparatively rare, government-initiated and advisory; Switzerland and US states are more citizen-led (bottom-up); Ireland occupies a middle position, legally requiring referendums for constitutional change without Switzerland’s frequency.
6. Impact on UK Political Life
- Constitutional practice: although legally advisory, referendum results since 1997 have been treated as politically decisive, leading some commentators to describe an emerging constitutional convention that major changes to how the UK is governed should be put to a public vote.
- Devolution: the 1997 to 1998 referendums converted a highly centralised unitary state into one with substantial devolved government, though the 2004 North East rejection meant devolution did not extend on the same model to English regions, leaving the asymmetric ‘West Lothian Question’.
- The Union: the 2016 divergence between Scotland’s Remain vote and the UK-wide Leave result fed directly into demands for a further independence referendum, closed off for now by the Supreme Court’s November 2022 ruling.
- Party politics: Europe deepened Conservative divisions and contributed to three prime ministers between 2016 and 2019; Labour was similarly split, and the 2019 general election was fought substantially on how to implement the 2016 result.
- Regulation: PPERA’s framework has applied since 2000, though the 2016 campaign prompted continued scrutiny after Electoral Commission findings against campaign groups on both sides over spending returns.
- Turnout: engagement has varied sharply with perceived significance, from 84.6% in 2014 and 72.2% in 2016 down to 42.2% in the 2011 AV vote.
7. Key Legal Cases
- Miller v Secretary of State for Exiting the EU (2017): the Supreme Court confirmed the 2016 referendum result had no direct legal effect and that an Act of Parliament was required before Article 50 could be triggered, a clear legal confirmation that UK referendums are advisory only.
- Reference by the Lord Advocate (2022): the Supreme Court ruled the Scottish Parliament cannot legislate for a second independence referendum without Westminster’s consent, because the Union is a reserved matter under the Scotland Act 1998.
8. Conclusion: Was 2016 the Last UK Referendum?
No further UK-wide referendum has been held since 2016, and the 2022 Supreme Court ruling has, for now, closed off a further Scottish vote without Westminster’s agreement. Several factors point towards this being a lasting shift away from the referendum device:
- The political cost was severe: three changes of prime minister and years of prolonged parliamentary conflict over withdrawal.
- Public trust was damaged: disputed campaign claims on both sides left a legacy of scepticism about the referendum process itself.
- Governments have preferred other routes: since 2016, major constitutional questions have generally been resolved through general elections and ordinary parliamentary process rather than further referendums.
This should be treated as a reasoned judgement rather than a certainty. Demand for a further Scottish referendum has not disappeared, and a shift in Scotland’s political arithmetic, or a significant change in the UK’s relationship with the EU, could yet revive the case for another UK-wide vote.
